Stock Market Historical data

I like numbers so I don’t shy away fro the fact that I like statistical analysis and data.  As a result, I’ve collected some data on the stock markets that may be interesting to some people.

Before I show you the stock market historical data, I want to put forth my disclaimer: This data has been accumulated over many years and I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data.  I think the data is still interesting so I hope you can find some interest in it.

Year
Canadian Equities (TSX)
International Equities (MSCI)
19389.1%34.4%
19390.2%8.5%
1940-19.1%-1.0%
19411.9%-11.7%
194214.0%21.1%
194319.7%25.6%
194413.5%19.6%
194536.1%36.1%
1946-1.5%-16.5%
19470.3%5.3%
194812.1%5.1%
194922.6%29.8%
195048.4%24.6%
195124.0%21.4%
1952-0.4%12.0%
19532.2%-0.8%
195439.1%51.4%
195527.8%35.6%
195613.2%2.4%
1957-20.6%-9.2%
195831.3%41.3%
19594.6%10.4%
19601.8%3.8%
196132.8%34.6%
1962-7.1%-5.8%
196315.6%23.1%
196425.4%15.8%
19656.7%12.5%
1966-7.1%-9.4%
196718.1%23.6%
196822.5%10.3%
1969-0.8%-8.3%
1970-3.6%-1.6%
19718.0%12.2%
197227.4%18.6%
19730.3%-14.5%
1974-25.9%-27.2%
197518.5%40.8%
197611.0%24.2%
197710.7%-0.3%
197830.0%21.0%
197945.0%14.0%
198030.0%33.0%
1981-10.0%-5.0%
19826.0%21.0%
198336.0%25.0%
1984-20.0%16.0%
198525.0%40.0%
19869.0%29.0%
19876.0%5.0%
198811.0%10.0%
198921.0%21.0%
1990-15.0%-12.0%
199112.0%22.0%
1992-1.0%6.0%
199333.0%22.0%
1994-0.2%11.9%
199514.5%18.0%
199628.0%12.5%
199715.0%13.7%
1998-1.6%22.8%
199931.7%18.4%
20007.4%-9.9%
2001-12.6%-12.9%
2002-12.4%-21.9%
200326.7%9.4%
200414.5%6.9%
200524.1%7.3%
200617.3%20.2%
20079.8%-7.1%
2008-33.0%-25.4%
200935.1%11.1%
201017.6%6.5%
2011-8.7%-9.67
20127.2%14.8%
201313.0%35.9%
Average9.8%11.6%

Let’s take a look at the historical distribution of performance:

 
Canadian Equities
International Equities
From -20% to -30%4.4%3.9%
From -10% to -20%7.7%6.6%
From 0% to -10%14.3%15.8%
From 0% to 10%19.8%14.5%
From 10% to 20%22.0%23.7%
From 20% to 30%16.5%22.4%
From 30% to 40%12.1%7.9%
From 40% to 50%3.3%3.9%
From 50% to 60%0.0%1.3%

Interesting observations on a calendar year basis (from 1938 to 2013):

2013 was a great year for US and International Markets.  Markets produced returns in excess of 30% only 10 calendar years out of the pat 76 years (15.4% of the time).

Like most distribution charts, most of the calendar year returns fall between -10% and +30%.

Generally speaking, markets spend more time making money and less time losing money

  • Markets have been positive 73.6% of the time
  • Markets have been negative 26.4% of the time

Investing is less about perfection and more about probabilities.

  • Investors who buy and hold have a historical probability of making money 73.36% of the time. This is good data for passive investors. 
  • Investors who are trying to out guess the market need to win more than 73.6% of the time to do better than the markets.  That’s pretty challenging.

Markets tend to rebound after bad years

  • The TSX has experienced back-to-back negative years only twice over the past 75 years.
  • The TSX was negative 19 out of 76 calendar years.
  • 17 out of those 19 years, the market bounced back with positive return in the following calendar year
  • The average return of years that follow a negative year was 14.3%
  • Internationally the data is very similar but there has been a little more volatility and also greater downside risk.

The bottom line is that markets have a very high chance of rebounding the calendar year following a negative year.

That’s just a few of my observations.  Do you see any interesting observations I may have missed? 

Written by Jim Yih

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