Stock Market Historical data

I like numbers so I don’t shy away fro the fact that I like statistical analysis and data.  As a result, I’ve collected some data on the stock markets that may be interesting to some people.

Before I show you the stock market historical data, I want to put forth my disclaimer: This data has been accumulated over many years and I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data.  I think the data is still interesting so I hope you can find some interest in it.

Year
Canadian Equities (TSX)
International Equities (MSCI)
19389.1%34.4%
19390.2%8.5%
1940-19.1%-1.0%
19411.9%-11.7%
194214.0%21.1%
194319.7%25.6%
194413.5%19.6%
194536.1%36.1%
1946-1.5%-16.5%
19470.3%5.3%
194812.1%5.1%
194922.6%29.8%
195048.4%24.6%
195124.0%21.4%
1952-0.4%12.0%
19532.2%-0.8%
195439.1%51.4%
195527.8%35.6%
195613.2%2.4%
1957-20.6%-9.2%
195831.3%41.3%
19594.6%10.4%
19601.8%3.8%
196132.8%34.6%
1962-7.1%-5.8%
196315.6%23.1%
196425.4%15.8%
19656.7%12.5%
1966-7.1%-9.4%
196718.1%23.6%
196822.5%10.3%
1969-0.8%-8.3%
1970-3.6%-1.6%
19718.0%12.2%
197227.4%18.6%
19730.3%-14.5%
1974-25.9%-27.2%
197518.5%40.8%
197611.0%24.2%
197710.7%-0.3%
197830.0%21.0%
197945.0%14.0%
198030.0%33.0%
1981-10.0%-5.0%
19826.0%21.0%
198336.0%25.0%
1984-20.0%16.0%
198525.0%40.0%
19869.0%29.0%
19876.0%5.0%
198811.0%10.0%
198921.0%21.0%
1990-15.0%-12.0%
199112.0%22.0%
1992-1.0%6.0%
199333.0%22.0%
1994-0.2%11.9%
199514.5%18.0%
199628.0%12.5%
199715.0%13.7%
1998-1.6%22.8%
199931.7%18.4%
20007.4%-9.9%
2001-12.6%-12.9%
2002-12.4%-21.9%
200326.7%9.4%
200414.5%6.9%
200524.1%7.3%
200617.3%20.2%
20079.8%-7.1%
2008-33.0%-25.4%
200935.1%11.1%
201017.6%6.5%
2011-8.7%-9.67
20127.2%14.8%
201313.0%35.9%
Average9.8%11.6%

Let’s take a look at the historical distribution of performance:

 
Canadian Equities
International Equities
From -20% to -30%4.4%3.9%
From -10% to -20%7.7%6.6%
From 0% to -10%14.3%15.8%
From 0% to 10%19.8%14.5%
From 10% to 20%22.0%23.7%
From 20% to 30%16.5%22.4%
From 30% to 40%12.1%7.9%
From 40% to 50%3.3%3.9%
From 50% to 60%0.0%1.3%

Interesting observations on a calendar year basis (from 1938 to 2013):

2013 was a great year for US and International Markets.  Markets produced returns in excess of 30% only 10 calendar years out of the pat 76 years (15.4% of the time).

Like most distribution charts, most of the calendar year returns fall between -10% and +30%.

Generally speaking, markets spend more time making money and less time losing money

  • Markets have been positive 73.6% of the time
  • Markets have been negative 26.4% of the time

Investing is less about perfection and more about probabilities.

  • Investors who buy and hold have a historical probability of making money 73.36% of the time. This is good data for passive investors. 
  • Investors who are trying to out guess the market need to win more than 73.6% of the time to do better than the markets.  That’s pretty challenging.

Markets tend to rebound after bad years

  • The TSX has experienced back-to-back negative years only twice over the past 75 years.
  • The TSX was negative 19 out of 76 calendar years.
  • 17 out of those 19 years, the market bounced back with positive return in the following calendar year
  • The average return of years that follow a negative year was 14.3%
  • Internationally the data is very similar but there has been a little more volatility and also greater downside risk.

The bottom line is that markets have a very high chance of rebounding the calendar year following a negative year.

That’s just a few of my observations.  Do you see any interesting observations I may have missed? 

Written by Jim Yih

Jim Yih is a Fee Only Advisor, Best Selling Author, Financial Expert and a syndicated columnist. He is a sought after financial speaker on wealth, retirement and personal finance. He currently specializes in helping employers implement Group RRSP and Pension plans along with his Financial Education in the Workplace program. For more information you can visit www.retirehappy.ca. You can also follow him on TWITTER @jimyih.

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